Jonkopings Sodra 0-3 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra host IFK Varnamo at Vapenvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 1L across 7 games at Vapenvallen this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, IFK Varnamo have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 2W 2D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jonkopings Sodra 1.70 PPG, IFK Varnamo 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Jonkopings Sodra 54% | IFK Varnamo 15%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jonkopings Sodra 46% | IFK Varnamo 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.274 / defence 0.992 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.892 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.038. Jonkopings Sodra carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Jonkopings Sodra games / 13 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 51% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 23%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Varnamo 4.35. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 71% | IFK Varnamo 17% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vapenvallen • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 51% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 / IFK Varnamo 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.274 / def 0.992 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.892 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
0.92
IFK Varnamo xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 August 2021 at Vapenvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo?
Jonkopings Sodra 0 - 3 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Vapenvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 51% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and IFK Varnamo in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.83
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
IFK Varnamo xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
5%
19.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 0.92 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 13 games, going 6W 3D 4L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IFK Varnamo sit at 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.62 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 4W 2D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Jonkopings Sodra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, IFK Varnamo have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IFK Varnamo's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.08 scored and 0.62 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Varnamo in 15%.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo in 62% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 2.33 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Jonkopings Sodra or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jonkopings Sodra have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 62%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and IFK Varnamo?
From 2 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2021, when IFK Varnamo 2-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 67%, IFK Varnamo 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 33% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 50%; IFK Varnamo in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 17% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 33% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Varnamo run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Jonkopings Sodra 0-3 at Vapenvallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra fell 1.5 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.27 / defence 0.99 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 51% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 23%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 46%, IFK Varnamo 23%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.62 PPG, IFK Varnamo 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.