IK brage 2-0 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 18 as IK brage welcome Skövde AIK to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IK brage stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 7W 2D 1L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Skövde AIK have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.40 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IK brage, 1 for Skövde AIK and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Jul 2024, ended 0–1 with Skövde AIK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Skövde AIK in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 45% versus Skövde AIK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 47% | Skövde AIK 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.91 xG and Skövde AIK 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.145 / defence 0.782 | Skövde AIK attack 0.759 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.178. IK brage's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 IK brage games / 47 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 66% | Draw 21% | Skövde AIK 13%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.52 | Draw 4.76 | Skövde AIK 7.69. The model has a clear lean to IK brage (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 30% | Skövde AIK 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 66% | Draw 21% | Skövde AIK 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 43% | xG IK brage 1.91 / Skövde AIK 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.145 / def 0.782 | Skövde AIK attack 0.759 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: IK brage (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Skövde AIK xG
43%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Skövde AIK kick off?
IK brage vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
IK brage 2 - 0 Skövde AIK.
Where is IK brage vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Skövde AIK part of?
IK brage vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 66% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 13% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IK brage and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Skövde AIK?
Record (5 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 3 | Skövde AIK 1W.
What form are IK brage and Skövde AIK in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Skövde AIK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IK brage's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Skövde AIK's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
66%
1.51
21%
4.76
13%
7.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.61
0.70
Skövde AIK xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
7.77
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
33%
3.04
2%
52.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are IK brage and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for IK brage and 0.70 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Skövde AIK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage's recent record stands at 20W 9D 18L from 47 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Skövde AIK, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 23L across 47 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.47 PPG, Skövde AIK on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 15W 4D 4L from 23 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Skövde AIK's away record stands at 3W 5D 15L across 23 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Skövde AIK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 1.15 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 20W 9D 18L in their last 47 games (1.47 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 15W 9D 23L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Skövde AIK away?
IK brage's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 2.13 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.61 PPG.
Have IK brage or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
IK brage's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IK brage
3
Draws
1
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Skövde AIK?
From 6 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Skövde AIK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2024, when IK brage 2-0 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Skövde AIK?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 52%, Skövde AIK 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for IK brage and 65% for Skövde AIK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Skövde AIK in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Skövde AIK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IK brage's recent matches and 56% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Skövde AIK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of IK brage's matches and 65% of Skövde AIK's.
Do IK brage and Skövde AIK tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Skövde AIK in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IK brage cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Skövde AIK 2-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.91 xG and Skövde AIK 0.70 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.15 / defence 0.78 against Skövde AIK attack 0.76 / defence 1.14, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 66% | Draw 21% | Skövde AIK 13%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 47%, Skövde AIK 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.47 PPG, Skövde AIK 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.