IK brage 0-3 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs Osters IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Osters IF travel to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to take on IK brage. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Osters IF have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IK brage 1.60 PPG, Osters IF 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IK brage register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Osters IF in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, IK brage have won 2, Osters IF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with IK brage winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IK brage trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Osters IF trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 63% versus Osters IF 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 59% | Osters IF 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.10 xG and Osters IF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.964 / defence 0.816 | Osters IF attack 0.914 / defence 0.820. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.361. Data: 49 IK brage games / 49 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 36% | Draw 33% | Osters IF 31%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Osters IF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 60% | Osters IF 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 36% | Draw 33% | Osters IF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG IK brage 1.10 / Osters IF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.964 / def 0.816 | Osters IF attack 0.914 / def 0.820 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: IK brage (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Osters IF xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Osters IF kick off?
IK brage vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Osters IF?
IK brage 0 - 3 Osters IF.
Where is IK brage vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Osters IF part of?
IK brage vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 36% chance of winning, Osters IF a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both IK brage and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Osters IF?
Record (3 meetings): IK brage 2W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are IK brage and Osters IF in?
IK brage (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Osters IF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.96x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
36%
2.78
33%
3.06
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.12
1.01
Osters IF xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are IK brage and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for IK brage and 1.01 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 19W 16D 14L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF's form line: 20W 17D 12L from 49 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.49 PPG, Osters IF on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IK brage have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (11W 7D 7L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 8W 10D 7L from 25 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.31 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Osters IF in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 19W 16D 14L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 20W 17D 12L in their last 49 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Osters IF away?
IK brage's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.60 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.36 PPG.
Have IK brage or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Osters IF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when Osters IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
IK brage
1
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Osters IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 4, Osters IF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Osters IF 3-2 IK brage.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 52%, Osters IF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (IK brage) and 36% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Osters IF in 32%; Osters IF in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IK brage's recent matches and 52% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of IK brage's recent games and 36% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Osters IF tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat IK brage 0-3 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.10 xG and Osters IF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Osters IF outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.96 / defence 0.82 against Osters IF attack 0.91 / defence 0.82, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 36% | Draw 33% | Osters IF 31%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 59%, Osters IF 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Osters IF's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.49 PPG, Osters IF 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.