IK brage 0-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.

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Analysis

GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

IK brage have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.

IK brage's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

GIF Sundsvall (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.

GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

On a straight form reading, GIF Sundsvall are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: IK brage 0W, GIF Sundsvall 0W, 1D.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 60% versus GIF Sundsvall 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 56% | GIF Sundsvall 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.31 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.108 / defence 1.445 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.901 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.185. Data: 25 IK brage games / 25 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: IK brage 32% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 43%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | GIF Sundsvall 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 60% | GIF Sundsvall 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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