IK brage 5-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IK brage at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen to face IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IK brage have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in IK brage's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: IK brage 2W, GIF Sundsvall 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with IK brage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
IK brage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 57% versus GIF Sundsvall 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | GIF Sundsvall 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.36 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.960 / defence 0.836 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.800 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.016. Data: 42 IK brage games / 42 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 53% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 19%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | GIF Sundsvall 5.26. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 60% | GIF Sundsvall 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 53% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 37% | xG IK brage 1.36 / GIF Sundsvall 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.960 / def 0.836 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.800 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: IK brage (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.68
GIF Sundsvall xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
IK brage 5 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 53% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both IK brage and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (4 meetings): IK brage 2W | Draws 2 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are IK brage and GIF Sundsvall in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IK brage's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.80x) against IK brage's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
53%
1.88
28%
3.55
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.04
0.68
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
5%
20.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are IK brage and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for IK brage and 0.68 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IK brage's recent record stands at 23W 14D 23L from 60 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 37L across 60 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IK brage by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over GIF Sundsvall heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IK brage have managed 15W 6D 9L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 4W 5D 21L across 30 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.08 scored and 2.22 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 23W 14D 23L in their last 60 games (1.38 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 10D 37L in their last 60 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
IK brage's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.70 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 5-0 on 23 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
IK brage
3
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and GIF Sundsvall?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 5, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and GIF Sundsvall?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 57%, GIF Sundsvall 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for IK brage and 57% for GIF Sundsvall. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; GIF Sundsvall in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of IK brage's recent matches and 47% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of IK brage's matches and 57% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do IK brage and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IK brage run riot with a 5-0 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat GIF Sundsvall 5-0 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.36 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.68 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. IK brage beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 53% | Draw 28% | GIF Sundsvall 19%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, GIF Sundsvall 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IK brage arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.