IK brage 0-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Falkenbergs FF at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.30 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.974 / defence 1.150 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 0.787. Data: 1 IK brage games / 1 Falkenbergs FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IK brage 49% | Draw 29% | Falkenbergs FF 22%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Falkenbergs FF 4.55. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 49% | Draw 29% | Falkenbergs FF 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 39% | xG IK brage 1.30 / Falkenbergs FF 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.974 / def 1.150 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.162 / away 0.787 • Poisson stance: IK brage (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Falkenbergs FF xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 April 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF?
IK brage 0 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 49% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both IK brage and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Falkenbergs FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Falkenbergs FF in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.97x the league average against Falkenbergs FF's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.48
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.07
0.77
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
6%
16.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.6 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are IK brage and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for IK brage and 0.77 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Pre-Season
Falkenbergs FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Falkenbergs FF runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
IK brage's record when hosting Falkenbergs FF specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
IK brage
0
Draws
3
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Falkenbergs FF?
From 5 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when IK brage 2-4 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Falkenbergs FF defy the odds to beat IK brage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat IK brage 0-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.30 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.77 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IK brage fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 49% | Draw 29% | Falkenbergs FF 22%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Falkenbergs FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.