IFK Varnamo 1-0 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 24 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.40 xG and IK brage 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 1.053 / defence 1.177 | IK brage attack 0.875 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 0.831. Data: 2 IFK Varnamo games / 2 IK brage games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 49% | Draw 29% | IK brage 22%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | IK brage 4.55. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 49% | Draw 29% | IK brage 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.40 / IK brage 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 1.053 / def 1.177 | IK brage attack 0.875 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.197 / away 0.831 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.86
IK brage xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IK brage kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IK brage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 April 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 0 IK brage.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IK brage part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 49% chance of winning, IK brage a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and IK brage in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (1.05) and IK brage's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.88x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.50
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.26
0.86
IK brage xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.5 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.86 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
IK brage
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 5-1 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
2
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IK brage?
From 4 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, IK brage have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when IFK Varnamo 0-0 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out IK brage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat IK brage 1-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.40 xG and IK brage 0.86 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IK brage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 1.05 / defence 1.18 against IK brage attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 49% | Draw 29% | IK brage 22%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.