IFK Varnamo 3-2 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Falkenbergs FF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
IFK Varnamo are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 0 for Falkenbergs FF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2021, ended 3–0 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IFK Varnamo trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Falkenbergs FF trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 36% versus Falkenbergs FF 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 32% | Falkenbergs FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.51 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 1.071 / defence 0.923 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.749 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.073 / away 1.170. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing IFK Varnamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 IFK Varnamo games / 25 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 54% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 20%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Falkenbergs FF 5.00. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 30% | Falkenbergs FF 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 25 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 54% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.51 / Falkenbergs FF 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 1.071 / def 0.923 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.749 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.073 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Falkenbergs FF xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 25 October 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?
IFK Varnamo 3 - 2 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 54% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 0 | Falkenbergs FF 0W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 1.07x the league average against Falkenbergs FF's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.79
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.32
0.81
Falkenbergs FF xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
4%
22.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.81 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 25 games, going 15W 5D 5L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-W. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Falkenbergs FF sit at 0.96 PPG from 25 outings (6W 6D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.04 PPG clear of Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 9W 2D 1L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.42 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Falkenbergs FF have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.08 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF in 64%.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 15W 5D 5L in their last 25 games (2.00 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.42 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 0.75 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Falkenbergs FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Falkenbergs FF in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2021, when IFK Varnamo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
0
Draws
1
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF?
From 3 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Falkenbergs FF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Falkenbergs FF 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Falkenbergs FF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 33%, Falkenbergs FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (IFK Varnamo) and 58% (Falkenbergs FF).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Falkenbergs FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 67% of Falkenbergs FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 58% of Falkenbergs FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Varnamo edge out Falkenbergs FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Falkenbergs FF 3-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.51 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.81 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Falkenbergs FF outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.75 / defence 1.31, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 54% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 20%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 32%, Falkenbergs FF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.