Helsingborg 1-0 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Varbergs BoIS FC in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Friday 28 June 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helsingborg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Olympia this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.30 for Varbergs BoIS FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Helsingborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Helsingborg lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 50% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 41% | Varbergs BoIS FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.11 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.748 / defence 0.919 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.854 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.042. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Helsingborg games / 13 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 42% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Helsingborg 60% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Friday 28 Jun 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 42% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Helsingborg 1.11 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.748 / def 0.919 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.854 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 28 June 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Helsingborg 1 - 0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 42% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (4 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2W.
What form are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.85x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
42%
2.38
31%
3.20
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
1.92
0.82
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
9%
11.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.82 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 8W 9D 15L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 10W 7D 15L from 32 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. Varbergs BoIS FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.16 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (6W 3D 7L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 5W 2D 9L from 16 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.09 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 8W 9D 15L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.31 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 on 15 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Helsingborg
1
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Helsingborg 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 44%, Varbergs BoIS FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Helsingborg) and 62% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 38% of games; Varbergs BoIS FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Helsingborg's recent games and 62% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.11 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.82 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.75 / defence 0.92 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 42% | Draw 31% | Varbergs BoIS FC 27%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 41%, Varbergs BoIS FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.03 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.