Helsingborg 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 47%, yet in-form Landskrona BoIS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 10 August 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Helsingborg have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Olympia this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Landskrona BoIS's 2.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Helsingborg's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Helsingborg in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 21% versus Landskrona BoIS 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 36% | Landskrona BoIS 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.70 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.176 / defence 1.141 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.035 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.088. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Helsingborg games / 14 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 29%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Landskrona BoIS 3.45. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 20% | Landskrona BoIS 83%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Helsingborg 1.70 / Landskrona BoIS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.176 / def 1.141 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.035 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 10 August 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Helsingborg 2 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 47% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Helsingborg's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.20
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.99
1.29
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
5%
18.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.29 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 7W 3D 4L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 8W 4D 2L from 14 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.71 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (3W 0D 3L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.79 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Helsingborg have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 71%.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 7W 3D 4L in their last 14 games (1.71 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Landskrona BoIS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Landskrona BoIS in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 11 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2026, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Helsingborg
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2026, when Helsingborg 0-3 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 17%, Landskrona BoIS 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Helsingborg) and 67% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 83% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Helsingborg's recent games and 67% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Helsingborg edge out Landskrona BoIS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1 at Olympia, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.70 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.29 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.18 / defence 1.14 against Landskrona BoIS attack 1.03 / defence 1.30, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 47% | Draw 24% | Landskrona BoIS 29%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 36%, Landskrona BoIS 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.71 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.