Helsingborg 2-2 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 11 as Helsingborg welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Olympia. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 6 June 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Helsingborg haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Olympia this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jonkopings Sodra away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helsingborg 1.20 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Helsingborg, 0 for Jonkopings Sodra and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2021, ended 3–0 with Helsingborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 44% versus Jonkopings Sodra 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 53% | Jonkopings Sodra 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.90 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.572 / defence 0.933 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.313 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.107. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.572 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jonkopings Sodra have an above-average attack strength of 1.313 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Helsingborg games / 40 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 25% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 47%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.13. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Helsingborg 40% | Jonkopings Sodra 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 25% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Helsingborg 0.90 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.572 / def 0.933 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.313 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Jonkopings Sodra xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 6 June 2023 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Helsingborg 2 - 2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 25% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (2 meetings): Helsingborg 1W | Draws 1 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.57x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
25%
4.01
28%
3.61
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.26
1.36
Jonkopings Sodra xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
6%
15.59
19%
5.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.36 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 14W 9D 9L from 32 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. Helsingborg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 13L across 32 games — 1.22 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helsingborg on 1.59 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 7W 3D 6L from 16 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 5W 6D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.41 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 72%.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 14W 9D 9L in their last 32 games (1.59 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 10W 9D 13L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2021, when Helsingborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
3
Draws
0
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-2 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 38%, Jonkopings Sodra 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Helsingborg) and 50% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 69% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Helsingborg's recent games and 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympia, Regular Season - 11, as Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra drew 2-2 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.90 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.36 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Helsingborg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.57 / defence 0.93 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.31 / defence 1.15, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 25% | Draw 28% | Jonkopings Sodra 47%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 53%, Jonkopings Sodra 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.59 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.