Halmstad 1-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Halmstad at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Halmstad welcome Vasteras SK FK to Örjans Vall. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Halmstad stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad at Örjans Vall this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Vasteras SK FK have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Halmstad carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Halmstad, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Halmstad trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 53% versus Vasteras SK FK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 43% | Vasteras SK FK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.87 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 1.222 / defence 0.937 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.828 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.361. Data: 19 Halmstad games / 49 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 55% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 20%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Vasteras SK FK 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Halmstad (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Halmstad are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Halmstad 70% | Vasteras SK FK 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 55% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Halmstad 1.87 / Vasteras SK FK 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 1.222 / def 0.937 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.828 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Halmstad (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Vasteras SK FK xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Halmstad 1 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 55% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Halmstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): Halmstad 0W | Draws 1 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK in?
Halmstad (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Halmstad's attack rating (1.22) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Halmstad's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Halmstad Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.03
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.92
1.05
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
15%
6.47
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
3%
32.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.05 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Halmstad's recent record stands at 20W 16D 13L from 49 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 18L across 49 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Halmstad by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasteras SK FK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Halmstad have managed 9W 10D 5L from 24 games — 1.54 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Halmstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Halmstad are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 20W 16D 13L in their last 49 games (1.55 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 12W 19D 18L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Halmstad's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.54 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasteras SK FK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Halmstad's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Halmstad
2
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK?
From 5 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Halmstad 1-3 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 58%, Vasteras SK FK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Halmstad) and 42% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Halmstad's games and 54% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Halmstad vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Halmstad's recent games and 42% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad and Vasteras SK FK finished level at 1-1 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.87 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.05 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Halmstad fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 55% | Draw 25% | Vasteras SK FK 20%, with Halmstad to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 43%, Vasteras SK FK 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Halmstad arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.