GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Osters IF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at NP3 Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osters IF stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.40 PPG (GIF Sundsvall) versus 2.20 (Osters IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for GIF Sundsvall, 0 for Osters IF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2021, ended 2–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Osters IF in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 50% versus Osters IF 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (GIF Sundsvall 39% | Osters IF 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.22 xG and Osters IF 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.104 / defence 0.894 | Osters IF attack 0.853 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.264. Data: 28 GIF Sundsvall games / 28 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 42% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 29%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Osters IF 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 30% | Osters IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 42% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.22 / Osters IF 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.104 / def 0.894 | Osters IF attack 0.853 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Osters IF xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 42% chance of winning, Osters IF a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Osters IF 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Osters IF (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
42%
2.41
30%
3.38
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.18
0.96
Osters IF xG
2.41
42%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.96 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 28 games, going 15W 7D 6L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (11W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIF Sundsvall on 1.86 PPG, Osters IF on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 9W 3D 2L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.14 points per game from 14 outings (4W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.07 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Osters IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 15W 7D 6L in their last 28 games (1.86 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 11W 9D 8L in their last 28 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Osters IF away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.14 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.14 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Osters IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 15 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osters IF have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2023, when Osters IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
5
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
From 7 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Osters IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 15 June 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 0-4 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 43%, Osters IF 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (GIF Sundsvall) and 29% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Osters IF in 36%; Osters IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 36% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 29% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 29, as GIF Sundsvall and Osters IF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.22 xG and Osters IF 0.96 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against Osters IF attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 42% | Draw 30% | Osters IF 29%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 39%, Osters IF 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Osters IF's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.86 PPG, Osters IF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.