GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Jonkopings Sodra at NP3 Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 28 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GIF Sundsvall 0.70 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. GIF Sundsvall register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Jonkopings Sodra 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2023, ended 0–1 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GIF Sundsvall 57% and Jonkopings Sodra 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 61% | Jonkopings Sodra 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.60 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.819 / defence 1.302 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.982 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.171. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 GIF Sundsvall games / 49 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 35%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Jonkopings Sodra 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.60 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.819 / def 1.302 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.982 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Jonkopings Sodra xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 28 August 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 39% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (3 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 1 | Jonkopings Sodra 2W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.84
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.09
1.50
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.50 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 49 games, going 9W 7D 33L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jonkopings Sodra sit at 1.24 PPG from 49 outings (15W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 6W 3D 15L across 24 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Jonkopings Sodra have taken 1.08 points per game from 24 outings (5W 11D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.35 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.47 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 69%.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 7D 33L in their last 49 games (0.69 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 15W 16D 18L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Jonkopings Sodra's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 0.88 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2023, when GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — GIF Sundsvall at 67%, Jonkopings Sodra at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for GIF Sundsvall and 58% for Jonkopings Sodra. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 67% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 58% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Jonkopings Sodra 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.60 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.82 / defence 1.30 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.98 / defence 1.30, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 35%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 61%, Jonkopings Sodra 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.