GIF Sundsvall 3-3 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 2 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 4W 1D 1L at NP3 Arena — 2.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena. Their home PPG of 2.17 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IK brage have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. GIF Sundsvall's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of IK brage's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
IK brage — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 38% versus IK brage 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (GIF Sundsvall 31% | IK brage 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.35 xG and IK brage 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.115 / defence 1.113 | IK brage attack 0.941 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.038. Data: 13 GIF Sundsvall games / 13 IK brage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 27% | IK brage 30%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | IK brage 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 50% | IK brage 57%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 27% | IK brage 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.35 / IK brage 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.115 / def 1.113 | IK brage attack 0.941 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.09
IK brage xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 August 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 3 IK brage.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 43% chance of winning, IK brage a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. IK brage (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.11) and IK brage's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.94x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.69
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.44
1.09
IK brage xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
8%
12.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.09 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 6W 2D 5L from 13 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 7L across 13 games — 0.92 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIF Sundsvall by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IK brage heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.54 PPG overall — GIF Sundsvall are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IK brage's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 0.85 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
IK brage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 games (1.54 PPG), while IK brage have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IK brage away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.17 PPG; IK brage away: 1.17 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or IK brage been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IK brage in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 5-0 on 23 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
5
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, IK brage have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 50%, IK brage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIF Sundsvall) and 50% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; IK brage in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IK brage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 50% of IK brage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 50% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IK brage tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IK brage in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and IK brage share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall and IK brage finished level at 3-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.35 xG and IK brage 1.09 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IK brage outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.11 / defence 1.11 against IK brage attack 0.94 / defence 1.10, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 27% | IK brage 30%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 31%, IK brage 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
IK brage's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.