GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 40%, yet the head-to-head data favours IK brage — this GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus IK brage in Superettan (matchday 3). Kick-off: Monday 20 April 2026 at 18:05 UK time.

Current Form

GIF Sundsvall's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

IK brage have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, IK brage have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from GIF Sundsvall's last 10 home games and IK brage's last 10 away games) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IK brage in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to IK brage, who have 4 wins from 8 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2025, ended GIF Sundsvall 1–0 IK brage — a GIF Sundsvall win.

IK brage have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading & In-Play

GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

IK brage — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 52% versus IK brage 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | IK brage 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIF Sundsvall surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while IK brage have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 41% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.43 xG and IK brage 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.048 / defence 1.120 | IK brage attack 0.968 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.219. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 32 games and IK brage's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 26% | IK brage 35%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.52 | Draw 3.92 | IK brage 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (GIF Sundsvall's last 10 home games and IK brage's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 60% (last 10 home games) | IK brage 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (GIF Sundsvall 32 games, IK brage 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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