Gefle IF 0-6 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gefle IF host Gais at Gavlevallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Gefle IF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF's home record at Gavlevallen: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Gais have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Gefle IF) versus 1.60 (Gais). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Gefle IF have won 0, Gais 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gefle IF in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gais in-play and half-time data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 59% versus Gais 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 50% | Gais 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.12 xG and Gais 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.977 / defence 1.014 | Gais attack 1.020 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.209. Gais's defence strength of 0.752 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 22 Gefle IF games / 22 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 32% | Draw 30% | Gais 38%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Gais 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gefle IF 60% | Gais 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 32% | Draw 30% | Gais 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Gefle IF 1.12 / Gais 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.977 / def 1.014 | Gais attack 1.020 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Gais (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Gais xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Gais kick off?
Gefle IF vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Gais?
Gefle IF 0 - 6 Gais.
Where is Gefle IF vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Gais part of?
Gefle IF vs Gais is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 32% chance of winning, Gais a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gefle IF and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 1 | Gais 0W.
What form are Gefle IF and Gais in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Gais (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gefle IF's attack rating (0.98) and Gais's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.31
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.38
1.25
Gais xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.97
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.25 for Gais, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 9W 5D 8L from 22 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais, meanwhile, have gone 11W 6D 5L across 22 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gefle IF on 1.45 PPG, Gais on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gais's away record stands at 4W 4D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Gefle IF are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.77 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Gais in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and Gais in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 9W 5D 8L in their last 22 games (1.45 PPG), while Gais have gone 11W 6D 5L in their last 22 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or Gais away?
Gefle IF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 2.00 PPG; Gais away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Gefle IF or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gefle IF have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Gais in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gefle IF and Gais runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gefle IF
1
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Gais?
From 2 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 0, Gais have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2023, when Gefle IF 0-6 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 60%, Gais 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Gefle IF and 60% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais in 50%; Gais in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Gefle IF's games and 50% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gefle IF vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Gefle IF's matches and 60% of Gais's.
Do Gefle IF and Gais tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Gais in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Gefle IF 0-6 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.12 xG and Gais 1.25 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Gefle IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gais outscored their 1.25 projection by 4.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.98 / defence 1.01 against Gais attack 1.02 / defence 0.75, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 32% | Draw 30% | Gais 38%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 50%, Gais 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Gais's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.45 PPG, Gais 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.