Gais 2-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Trelleborg travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Gais. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Gais have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gais's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Gais) versus 1.20 (Trelleborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gais register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gais, 2 for Trelleborg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Trelleborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gais in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 44% versus Trelleborg 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 41% | Trelleborg 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 2.09 xG and Trelleborg 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.144 / defence 0.891 | Trelleborg attack 0.998 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.139. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Gais games / 35 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 62% | Draw 20% | Trelleborg 17%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Trelleborg 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Gais (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Gais 70% | Trelleborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 62% | Draw 20% | Trelleborg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Gais 2.09 / Trelleborg 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.144 / def 0.891 | Trelleborg attack 0.998 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Gais (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Trelleborg xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Trelleborg kick off?
Gais vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Trelleborg?
Gais 2 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Gais vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Trelleborg part of?
Gais vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 62% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gais and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Trelleborg?
Record (2 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 2W.
What form are Gais and Trelleborg in?
Gais (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gais's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.09. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.91
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Gais xG
Total xG
3.11
1.01
Trelleborg xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
2%
46.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Gais and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Gais and 1.01 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Trelleborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gais's recent record stands at 10W 5D 17L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Trelleborg, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 12L across 32 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.09 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gais have managed 5W 3D 8L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trelleborg's away record stands at 6W 4D 6L across 16 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.50 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 72%.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 13W 7D 12L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.12 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gais have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2023, when Gais won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gais
0
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, Trelleborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Trelleborg 0-6 Gais.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gais at 62%, Trelleborg at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 62% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gais's games and 69% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Gais's matches and 62% of Trelleborg's.
Do Gais and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gais edge out Trelleborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Trelleborg 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 2.09 xG and Trelleborg 1.01 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.14 / defence 0.89 against Trelleborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.30, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 62% | Draw 20% | Trelleborg 17%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 41%, Trelleborg 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.09 PPG, Trelleborg 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.