Degerfors IF 1-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Degerfors IF face Osters IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Osters IF make the trip to Stora Valla to face Degerfors IF in Superettan (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Degerfors IF (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.80 for Osters IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2024, ended Degerfors IF 1–1 Osters IF — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Osters IF — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 63% and Osters IF 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 54% | Osters IF 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Degerfors IF surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Osters IF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.09 xG and Osters IF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.017 / defence 0.970 | Osters IF attack 1.004 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.177. Osters IF bring a tight defence (rating 0.762, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Degerfors IF's projected output down. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 29 games and Osters IF's last 59.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 33% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 36%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.00 | Draw 3.25 | Osters IF 2.79. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 60% (last 10 home games) | Osters IF 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, matchday 30 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 33% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Degerfors IF 1.09 / Osters IF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 1.017 / def 0.970 | Osters IF attack 1.004 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Osters IF xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Degerfors IF vs Osters IF FAQs
What time does Degerfors IF vs Osters IF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Degerfors IF 1 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Osters IF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Osters IF is a Superettan fixture (matchday 30) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 33% chance of winning, Osters IF a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Degerfors IF and Osters IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Degerfors IF vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 1.02x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.00x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Degerfors IF's last 29 games and Osters IF's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
33%
3.00
31%
3.25
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.24
1.15
Osters IF xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
11%
9.43
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.2 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Degerfors IF vs Osters IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.15 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 22W 15D 22L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Osters IF's form line: 30W 15D 14L from 59 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Osters IF are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Degerfors IF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 29 home games (14W 5D 10L).
On the road, Osters IF have gone 12W 9D 8L from their last 29 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.86 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Osters IF in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
Degerfors IF (Home) vs Osters IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Degerfors IF vs Osters IF Form FAQs
What form are Degerfors IF and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 22W 15D 22L in their last 59 games (1.37 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 30W 15D 14L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Osters IF away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.62 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. They cover more than one competition — Superettan, Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 25 October 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
2
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Degerfors IF vs Osters IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Osters IF?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Degerfors IF have won 1, Osters IF have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Osters IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2025: Osters IF 1-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Degerfors IF, 72% for Osters IF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Degerfors IF) and 59% (Osters IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Degerfors IF vs Osters IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Degerfors IF and Osters IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Degerfors IF's games and 72% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Degerfors IF and Osters IF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Degerfors IF's matches and 59% of Osters IF's.
Do Degerfors IF and Osters IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 66% of Osters IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Degerfors IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Degerfors IF 1-2 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 30, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.09 xG and Osters IF 1.15 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osters IF outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Osters IF attack 1.00 / defence 0.76, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 33% | Draw 31% | Osters IF 36%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 54%, Osters IF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.