Sirius 0-3 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees BK Hacken travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sirius have posted 8W 2D 0L at Studenternas IP — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sirius are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, BK Hacken have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Sirius.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. BK Hacken have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BK Hacken in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 74% and BK Hacken 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 74% | BK Hacken 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 2.26 xG and BK Hacken 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.336 / defence 1.117 | BK Hacken attack 1.052 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.633 / away 1.370. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 2.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Sirius games / 47 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 52% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 27%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | BK Hacken 3.70. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
BK Hacken lead the H2H ledger, but Sirius carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.87 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 70% | BK Hacken 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 52% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 72% | xG Sirius 2.26 / BK Hacken 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.336 / def 1.117 | BK Hacken attack 1.052 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.633 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Sirius (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.61
BK Hacken xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs BK Hacken kick off?
Sirius vs BK Hacken kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Sirius 0 - 3 BK Hacken.
Where is Sirius vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs BK Hacken part of?
Sirius vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 52% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Sirius and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
Record (9 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 2 | BK Hacken 6W.
What form are Sirius and BK Hacken in?
Sirius (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.34) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
52%
1.93
21%
4.67
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.87
1.61
BK Hacken xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.61
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.66
3%
35.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Sirius and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Sirius and 1.61 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius come into this having played 47 games, going 24W 9D 14L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.34 PPG from 47 outings (16W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.72 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sirius's home form reads 13W 4D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.87 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (8W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 2.13 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.51 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 9D 14L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 16W 15D 16L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or BK Hacken away?
Sirius's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.87 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when BK Hacken won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sirius
2
Draws
7
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 1, BK Hacken have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Sirius 0-3 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 65%, BK Hacken 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Sirius) and 44% (BK Hacken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 30%; BK Hacken in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Sirius's recent matches and 44% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sirius's matches and 44% of BK Hacken's.
Do Sirius and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Sirius 0-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 2.26 xG and BK Hacken 1.61 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sirius fell 2.3 short of their projected output. BK Hacken outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.34 / defence 1.12 against BK Hacken attack 1.05 / defence 1.03, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 52% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 27%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 74%, BK Hacken 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
BK Hacken's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.72 PPG, BK Hacken 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.