Sirius 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 24 as Sirius welcome AIK Stockholm to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Sirius are significantly better at Studenternas IP than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour AIK Stockholm — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sirius, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 49% versus AIK Stockholm 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 55% | AIK Stockholm 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.37 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.812 / defence 1.071 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.211 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.147. AIK Stockholm have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Sirius games / 53 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 33% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 39%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | AIK Stockholm 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 30% | AIK Stockholm 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 33% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Sirius 1.37 / AIK Stockholm 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.812 / def 1.071 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.211 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.49
AIK Stockholm xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Sirius 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 33% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sirius and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
Record (2 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 1 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
33%
3.03
28%
3.51
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.86
1.49
AIK Stockholm xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.43
10%
10.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Sirius and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sirius and 1.49 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 53 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 17W 11D 25L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 29W 12D 12L from 53 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AIK Stockholm are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sirius.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.46 PPG from 26 outings (12W 2D 12L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 9W 6D 11L from 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.55 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 17W 11D 25L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 29W 12D 12L in their last 53 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Sirius's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.46 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Sirius or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 42%, AIK Stockholm 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sirius) and 46% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sirius have failed to score in 27% of games; AIK Stockholm in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Sirius's recent matches and 54% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sirius's recent games and 46% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 24, as Sirius and AIK Stockholm drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.37 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.49 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.21 / defence 1.12, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 33% | Draw 28% | AIK Stockholm 39%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 55%, AIK Stockholm 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.