Orgryte IS 4-3 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 12 as Orgryte IS welcome BK Hacken to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 July 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orgryte IS have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Orgryte IS are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. BK Hacken's 1.90 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Orgryte IS's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
BK Hacken trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 49% versus BK Hacken 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 54% | BK Hacken 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.23 xG and BK Hacken 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.856 / defence 1.205 | BK Hacken attack 0.988 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.653 / away 1.529. Data: 11 Orgryte IS games / 41 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 25% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 50%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | BK Hacken 2.00. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Jul 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 25% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Orgryte IS 1.23 / BK Hacken 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.856 / def 1.205 | BK Hacken attack 0.988 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.653 / away 1.529 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.82
BK Hacken xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken kick off?
Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 11 July 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken?
Orgryte IS 4 - 3 BK Hacken.
Where is Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken part of?
Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 25% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Orgryte IS and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and BK Hacken in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orgryte IS's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
25%
4.04
25%
4.02
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.05
1.82
BK Hacken xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
4%
24.91
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.82 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS come into this having played 41 games, going 17W 11D 13L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.34 PPG from 41 outings (14W 13D 14L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.51 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Orgryte IS's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.56 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 17W 11D 13L in their last 41 games (1.51 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 14W 13D 14L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or BK Hacken away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.65 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and BK Hacken runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
0
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and BK Hacken?
From 1 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 1, BK Hacken have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Orgryte IS 4-3 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and BK Hacken?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 45%, BK Hacken 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Orgryte IS) and 40% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; BK Hacken in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 45% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 40% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orgryte IS defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat BK Hacken 4-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.23 xG and BK Hacken 1.82 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken outscored their 1.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.86 / defence 1.21 against BK Hacken attack 0.99 / defence 0.87, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 25% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 50%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 54%, BK Hacken 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.51 PPG, BK Hacken 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orgryte IS win broke the near-deadlock. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.