Orebro SK 2-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Orebro SK welcome Mjallby AIF to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orebro SK at 1.00 PPG versus Mjallby AIF's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Orebro SK, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2020, ended 0–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Orebro SK trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mjallby AIF trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 49% versus Mjallby AIF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 58% | Mjallby AIF 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.24 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.740 / defence 1.096 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.937 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.106. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Orebro SK games / 43 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 37% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 32%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Mjallby AIF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 50% | Mjallby AIF 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 37% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Orebro SK 1.24 / Mjallby AIF 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.740 / def 1.096 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.937 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Mjallby AIF xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Orebro SK 2 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 37% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Orebro SK's attack rating (0.74) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.23
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.37
1.14
Mjallby AIF xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
9%
10.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.14 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 15W 8D 20L from 43 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 16L across 43 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.23 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 9W 5D 7L from 21 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 5W 6D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 15W 8D 20L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.52 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
2
Draws
1
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2021, when Mjallby AIF 0-0 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 52%, Mjallby AIF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Orebro SK) and 52% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Orebro SK's games and 62% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Orebro SK's recent games and 52% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and Mjallby AIF finished level at 2-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.24 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.14 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.74 / defence 1.10 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.94 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 37% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 32%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 58%, Mjallby AIF 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.23 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.