Orebro SK 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 2W 3D 5L at Behrn Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Djurgardens IF are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Orebro SK have won 1, Djurgardens IF 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2021, ended 0–3 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Djurgardens IF in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 49% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 56% | Djurgardens IF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.93 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.731 / defence 1.280 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.895 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.143. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Orebro SK games / 55 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 25% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 44%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Djurgardens IF 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 60% | Djurgardens IF 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 25% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Orebro SK 0.93 / Djurgardens IF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.731 / def 1.280 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.895 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Djurgardens IF xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Orebro SK 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 25% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.73x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
25%
3.96
30%
3.28
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.24
1.31
Djurgardens IF xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
40%
2.53
Win to Nil
7%
14.66
18%
5.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.31 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 11D 28L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.73 PPG from 55 outings (28W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Orebro SK's home form reads 10W 7D 10L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.52 points per game from 27 outings (12W 5D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.60 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 16W 11D 28L in their last 55 games (1.07 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 28W 11D 16L in their last 55 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.37 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Djurgardens IF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2020, when Djurgardens IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
0
Draws
3
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Orebro SK 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 56%, Djurgardens IF 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Orebro SK) and 44% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 37%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games; Djurgardens IF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 37% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Orebro SK's recent games and 44% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Orebro SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Orebro SK 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.93 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.31 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.73 / defence 1.28 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.90 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 25% | Draw 30% | Djurgardens IF 44%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 56%, Djurgardens IF 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.