Mjallby AIF 2-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Malmo FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 July 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 6W 2D 2L at Strandvallen — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Malmo FF's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mjallby AIF 1.90 PPG, Malmo FF 2.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Malmo FF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 46% versus Malmo FF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 50% | Malmo FF 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.68 xG and Malmo FF 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.140 / defence 0.999 | Malmo FF attack 1.329 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.688 / away 1.353. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Mjallby AIF games / 44 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.78 | Draw 4.55 | Malmo FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Malmo FF at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 80% | Malmo FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.68 / Malmo FF 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.140 / def 0.999 | Malmo FF attack 1.329 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.688 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Malmo FF xG
68%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 36% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 3W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (1.14) and Malmo FF's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
36%
2.74
22%
4.48
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.48
1.80
Malmo FF xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
6%
16.51
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.80 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 7D 17L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 2.25 PPG from 44 outings (31W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.91 points per game from 22 outings (13W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.30 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 7D 17L in their last 44 games (1.52 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 31W 6D 7L in their last 44 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.41 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Malmo FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 50%, Malmo FF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mjallby AIF) and 64% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 36%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 46% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 64% of Malmo FF's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Malmo FF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Malmo FF 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.68 xG and Malmo FF 1.80 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Malmo FF attack 1.33 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 41%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 50%, Malmo FF 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.