Mjallby AIF 1-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Mjallby AIF welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Strandvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 10). Kick-off is Monday 19 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mjallby AIF's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Mjallby AIF have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams have scored in at least 80% of each side's games (from Mjallby AIF's last 10 home games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Mjallby AIF have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Mjallby AIF 0–0 IF Brommapojkarna — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 50% versus IF Brommapojkarna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 48% | IF Brommapojkarna 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.92 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.300 / defence 0.785 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.250 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.361. Mjallby AIF carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 1.92 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. IF Brommapojkarna have an above-average attack rating of 1.250, which lifts their away xG to 1.33. Mjallby AIF have a tight defence (rating 0.785), which is pulling IF Brommapojkarna's projected output down. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 39 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 38.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.97 | Draw 4.40 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.79. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.92 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Mjallby AIF's last 10 home games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 90% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 10 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 19 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Mjallby AIF 1.92 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.300 / def 0.785 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.250 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
IF Brommapojkarna xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 19 May 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 10) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 51% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mjallby AIF's last 39 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.40
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
3.25
1.33
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
4%
25.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.33 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 26W 13D 21L from 60 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 27L across 60 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.52 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 13W 8D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 10W 6D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.52 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Mjallby AIF (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 26W 13D 21L in their last 60 games (1.52 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.57 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Apr 2026, when Mjallby AIF won Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Mjallby AIF have won 3, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 60%, IF Brommapojkarna 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Mjallby AIF) and 63% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Mjallby AIF's games and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 83% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.92 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.33 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.30 / defence 0.79 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.25 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 48%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.52 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.