Mjallby AIF 2-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Hammarby FF at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Mjallby AIF) versus 2.00 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hammarby FF trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 49% versus Hammarby FF 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 47% | Hammarby FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.42 xG and Hammarby FF 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.959 / defence 0.813 | Hammarby FF attack 0.962 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.540 / away 1.140. Data: 55 Mjallby AIF games / 55 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 23%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Hammarby FF 4.35. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.42 / Hammarby FF 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.959 / def 0.813 | Hammarby FF attack 0.962 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.540 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Hammarby FF xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 48% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
48%
2.07
29%
3.47
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.31
0.89
Hammarby FF xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.89 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 19W 18D 18L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 22W 18D 15L from 55 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.36 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 1.63 PPG from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 9W 6D 12L from 27 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.62 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 19W 18D 18L in their last 55 games (1.36 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 22W 18D 15L in their last 55 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.63 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
5
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 44%, Hammarby FF 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Mjallby AIF and 74% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Mjallby AIF's games and 70% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 74% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Hammarby FF 2-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.42 xG and Hammarby FF 0.89 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hammarby FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.96 / defence 0.81 against Hammarby FF attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 48% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 23%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 47%, Hammarby FF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.36 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.