Kalmar FF 1-0 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Kalmar FF welcome BK Hacken to Guldfågeln Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Kalmar FF) versus 1.10 (BK Hacken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kalmar FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Kalmar FF have won 4, BK Hacken 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 1–3 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Kalmar FF trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BK Hacken trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kalmar FF 59% and BK Hacken 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kalmar FF 59% | BK Hacken 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.42 xG and BK Hacken 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.909 / defence 1.423 | BK Hacken attack 1.252 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.233. BK Hacken have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 2.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Kalmar FF games / 59 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 24% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 55%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | BK Hacken 1.82. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 60% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 24% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Kalmar FF 1.42 / BK Hacken 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.909 / def 1.423 | BK Hacken attack 1.252 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
2.20
BK Hacken xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Kalmar FF 1 - 0 BK Hacken.
Where is Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken part of?
Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 24% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Kalmar FF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and BK Hacken?
Record (9 meetings): Kalmar FF 4W | Draws 2 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are Kalmar FF and BK Hacken in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.91x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 1-3 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
24%
4.11
21%
4.83
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
1 – 3
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.62
2.20
BK Hacken xG
4.11
24%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
11%
8.99
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
3%
36.92
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.4 | 9.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 2.20 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 20W 12D 27L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
BK Hacken's form line: 30W 9D 20L from 59 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L.
Put side by side, BK Hacken are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (11W 5D 13L).
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 10W 6D 13L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.08 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 20W 12D 27L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 30W 9D 20L in their last 59 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or BK Hacken away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.31 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Kalmar FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
3
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 5, BK Hacken have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 10 November 2024, when Kalmar FF 1-0 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and BK Hacken?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 55%, BK Hacken 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Kalmar FF and 66% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF have failed to score in 28% of games; BK Hacken in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 52% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Kalmar FF's matches and 66% of BK Hacken's.
Do Kalmar FF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat BK Hacken 1-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.42 xG and BK Hacken 2.20 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BK Hacken landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.91 / defence 1.42 against BK Hacken attack 1.25 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 24% | Draw 21% | BK Hacken 55%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Kalmar FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 59%, BK Hacken 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
BK Hacken's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Kalmar FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. BK Hacken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.