IFK Varnamo 2-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Varnamo face Vasteras SK FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus Vasteras SK FK in Allsvenskan (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
IFK Varnamo's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.00 for Vasteras SK FK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for IFK Varnamo, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 May 2024, ended IFK Varnamo 2–0 Vasteras SK FK — a IFK Varnamo win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 44% versus Vasteras SK FK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 48% | Vasteras SK FK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.18 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.758 / defence 1.288 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.733 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.353. IFK Varnamo's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Vasteras SK FK's attack rating of 0.733 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.28. IFK Varnamo's defence rating of 1.288 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vasteras SK FK's projected output up. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 52 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 22.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 34% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 39%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.94 | Draw 3.67 | Vasteras SK FK 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 50% (last 10 home games) | Vasteras SK FK 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 23 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 22 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 34% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG IFK Varnamo 1.18 / Vasteras SK FK 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.758 / def 1.288 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.733 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Vasteras SK FK xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 34% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.73x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 52 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.67
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.46
1.28
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.28 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 19W 8D 25L from 52 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 24W 9D 19L across 52 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.56 for Vasteras SK FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 7W 4D 14L from their last 25 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 11W 4D 10L across their last 25 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.31 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs Vasteras SK FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK Form FAQs
What form are IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 19W 8D 25L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 9D 19L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.00 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.48 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK, the earliest from May 2021. They cover more than one competition — Superettan, Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 22 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
IFK Varnamo have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
0
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 3, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 September 2024: IFK Varnamo 2-0 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 44%, Vasteras SK FK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (IFK Varnamo) and 52% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 32%; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 40% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Vasteras SK FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 44% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Vasteras SK FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Vasteras SK FK 2-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.18 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.28 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.76 / defence 1.29 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.73 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 34% | Draw 27% | Vasteras SK FK 39%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, Vasteras SK FK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.25 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.