IFK Varnamo 1-4 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 37%, yet in-form IFK Varnamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Varnamo host IFK Goteborg at Finnvedsvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Finnvedsvallen this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Goteborg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Goteborg away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
On current form, IFK Varnamo have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, IFK Varnamo have won 0, IFK Goteborg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 51% versus IFK Goteborg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 46% | IFK Goteborg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.42 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.844 / defence 1.084 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.084 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.257. Data: 29 IFK Varnamo games / 59 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 34% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 37%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | IFK Goteborg 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 70% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 34% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 61% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.42 / IFK Goteborg 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.844 / def 1.084 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.084 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.48
IFK Goteborg xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 4 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 34% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.84x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.47
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.90
1.48
IFK Goteborg xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
8%
12.78
9%
11.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.48 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 27W 15D 17L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 24W 11D 24L from 59 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.63 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.93 PPG from 29 outings (16W 8D 5L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 11W 5D 13L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.36 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 27W 15D 17L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 24W 11D 24L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.93 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.31 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when IFK Goteborg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when IFK Goteborg 1-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 52%, IFK Goteborg 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (IFK Varnamo) and 55% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 45% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 55% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Goteborg run riot with a 1-4 hammering of IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat IFK Varnamo 1-4 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.42 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.48 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. IFK Goteborg outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.84 / defence 1.08 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 34% | Draw 29% | IFK Goteborg 37%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 46%, IFK Goteborg 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.63 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.