IFK Varnamo 1-2 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 2 as IFK Varnamo welcome Gais to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 4W 2D 4L at Borås Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borås Arena this season.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 0 for Gais and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.58 xG and Gais 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.947 / defence 0.930 | Gais attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.356. Data: 31 IFK Varnamo games / 1 Gais games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 49% | Draw 25% | Gais 26%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Gais 3.85. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 49% | Draw 25% | Gais 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.58 / Gais 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.947 / def 0.930 | Gais attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Gais xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Gais kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Gais kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 April 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 2 Gais.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Gais part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Gais is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 49% chance of winning, Gais a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Gais?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Varnamo 2W | Draws 0 | Gais 0W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Gais in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. IFK Varnamo home split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.95) and Gais's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
49%
2.04
25%
3.98
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.65
1.07
Gais xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
5%
18.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.07 for Gais, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Gais
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
3
Draws
1
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Gais?
From 6 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Gais have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-2 Gais.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Gais?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat IFK Varnamo 1-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.58 xG and Gais 1.07 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gais outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.95 / defence 0.93 against Gais attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 49% | Draw 25% | Gais 26%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.