IFK Varnamo 2-3 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AIK Stockholm make the trip to Finnvedsvallen to face IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo at Finnvedsvallen this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — IFK Varnamo are significantly better at Finnvedsvallen than their overall form suggests.
AIK Stockholm (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, AIK Stockholm are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IFK Varnamo have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, AIK Stockholm in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
IFK Varnamo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 43% versus AIK Stockholm 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IFK Varnamo 41% | AIK Stockholm 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.11 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.702 / defence 0.915 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.183 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.062. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.702 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 IFK Varnamo games / 45 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 33% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 36%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | AIK Stockholm 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IFK Varnamo 60% | AIK Stockholm 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 33% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.11 / AIK Stockholm 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.702 / def 0.915 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.183 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.15
AIK Stockholm xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 3 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 33% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.70) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (1.18x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 14/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
33%
2.99
31%
3.22
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.26
1.15
AIK Stockholm xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.44
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.15 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 21W 9D 14L from 44 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 25W 9D 10L across 44 games — 1.91 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.91 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 13W 5D 3L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — IFK Varnamo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 7W 6D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.91 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.45 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 9D 14L in their last 44 games (1.64 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 25W 9D 10L in their last 44 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.10 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.29 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 5 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
5
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 5 October 2025, when AIK Stockholm 2-3 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 43%, AIK Stockholm 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (IFK Varnamo) and 48% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 57% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 48% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out IFK Varnamo 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat IFK Varnamo 2-3 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.11 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AIK Stockholm outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.70 / defence 0.92 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.18 / defence 1.07, drawn from 14/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 33% | Draw 31% | AIK Stockholm 36%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 41%, AIK Stockholm 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.64 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.