IFK Norrkoping 2-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees IFK Varnamo travel to PlatinumCars Arena to take on IFK Norrkoping. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 April 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Norrkoping have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Norrkoping at PlatinumCars Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IFK Varnamo away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. IFK Varnamo's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of IFK Norrkoping's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IFK Norrkoping, 0 for IFK Varnamo and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Norrkoping in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 60% versus IFK Varnamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 52% | IFK Varnamo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.22 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.983 / defence 1.002 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.965 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.197. Data: 32 IFK Norrkoping games / 32 IFK Varnamo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 37% | Draw 29% | IFK Varnamo 34%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | IFK Varnamo 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 40% | IFK Varnamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 37% | Draw 29% | IFK Varnamo 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.22 / IFK Varnamo 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.983 / def 1.002 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.965 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.16
IFK Varnamo xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 April 2023 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
IFK Norrkoping 2 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 37% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 0W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.45
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.38
1.16
IFK Varnamo xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.16 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Norrkoping's recent record stands at 21W 15D 24L from 60 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 18L across 60 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Norrkoping on 1.30 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Norrkoping have managed 13W 8D 9L from 30 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 27W 15D 18L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.57 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Norrkoping have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when IFK Norrkoping won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Norrkoping's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
IFK Norrkoping
1
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo?
From 9 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 6, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when IFK Norrkoping 6-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 60%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (IFK Norrkoping) and 57% (IFK Varnamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play IFK Varnamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of IFK Norrkoping's matches and 57% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do IFK Norrkoping and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out IFK Varnamo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat IFK Varnamo 2-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.22 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.16 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.96 / defence 0.86, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 37% | Draw 29% | IFK Varnamo 34%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 52%, IFK Varnamo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.30 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.