IFK Norrkoping 1-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Monday 22 November 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's home record at PlatinumCars Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.90 for Djurgardens IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Norrkoping lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2021, ended 0–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 68% versus Djurgardens IF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 65% | Djurgardens IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.53 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.310 / defence 1.023 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.870 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.158. IFK Norrkoping carry an above-average attack strength of 1.310 — their λ of 1.53 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 IFK Norrkoping games / 57 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 49% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 25%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Djurgardens IF 4.00. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Norrkoping 70% | Djurgardens IF 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 49% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.53 / Djurgardens IF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.310 / def 1.023 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.870 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Djurgardens IF xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 49% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 1.31x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.87x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.91
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.56
1.03
Djurgardens IF xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.03 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 11D 20L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.77 PPG from 57 outings (30W 11D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.77 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 14W 8D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.57 points per game from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.58 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 26W 11D 20L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 30W 11D 16L in their last 57 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.79 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.57 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
IFK Norrkoping
3
Draws
7
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, Djurgardens IF have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 71%, Djurgardens IF 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (IFK Norrkoping) and 43% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 39%; Djurgardens IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 36% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF finished level at 1-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.53 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.03 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.31 / defence 1.02 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.87 / defence 0.78, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 49% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 25%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 65%, Djurgardens IF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.56 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.