IFK Norrkoping 1-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Djurgardens IF (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Norrkoping face Djurgardens IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 8 July 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's home record at PlatinumCars Arena: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Djurgardens IF are 1.00 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Djurgardens IF have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to IFK Norrkoping's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
It is worth noting that Djurgardens IF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 64% versus Djurgardens IF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 67% | Djurgardens IF 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.22 xG and Djurgardens IF 2.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.942 / defence 1.376 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.388 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.693 / away 1.338. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.766 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Djurgardens IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.388 — the away xG of 2.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 IFK Norrkoping games / 42 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 16% | Draw 17% | Djurgardens IF 66%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 6.25 | Draw 5.88 | Djurgardens IF 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.78. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.78 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 2.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.78 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. This conflicts with form data: IFK Norrkoping 40% | Djurgardens IF 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 Jul 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 16% | Draw 17% | Djurgardens IF 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 65% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.22 / Djurgardens IF 2.56 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.942 / def 1.376 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.388 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.693 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
2.56
Djurgardens IF xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 July 2024 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 3 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 16% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 66% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
Record (6 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 0W | Draws 2 | Djurgardens IF 4W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 0.94x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.39x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 2.56.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 1-3 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
16%
6.11
17%
5.76
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.8%
Away win
0 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
3.78
2.56
Djurgardens IF xG
6.11
16%
Home win
5.76
17%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
8%
12.90
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
1%
78.78
20%
5.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.8 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 2.1 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 2.56 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 3.78.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 7D 20L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.79 PPG from 42 outings (23W 6D 13L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 9W 2D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (9W 3D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.55 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 15W 7D 20L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 6D 13L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.45 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
IFK Norrkoping
3
Draws
7
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, Djurgardens IF have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 50%, Djurgardens IF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (IFK Norrkoping) and 50% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Norrkoping 1-3 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.22 xG and Djurgardens IF 2.56 xG, a combined 3.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.94 / defence 1.38 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.39 / defence 0.77, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 16% | Draw 17% | Djurgardens IF 66%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 67%, Djurgardens IF 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.