IFK Goteborg 2-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Monday 1 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.20 for IFK Norrkoping. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: IFK Goteborg 2W, IFK Norrkoping 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2022, ended 2–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus IFK Norrkoping 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 44% | IFK Norrkoping 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.969 / defence 0.905 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.912 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.158. Data: 45 IFK Goteborg games / 45 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 46% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 26%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Norrkoping 3.85. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 50% | IFK Norrkoping 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 1 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 46% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.35 / IFK Norrkoping 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.969 / def 0.905 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.912 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
IFK Norrkoping xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 1 August 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg 2 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 46% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.97x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.91x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.55
26%
3.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.30
0.96
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.80
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
7%
14.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.96 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 18W 11D 16L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 17W 9D 19L from 45 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.33 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 7W 3D 12L from 22 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.36 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 18W 11D 16L in their last 45 games (1.44 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 17W 9D 19L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.09 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Norrkoping won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 6, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, IFK Norrkoping 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (IFK Goteborg) and 54% (IFK Norrkoping).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; IFK Norrkoping in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 54% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 54% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat IFK Norrkoping 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.96 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 46% | Draw 28% | IFK Norrkoping 26%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 44%, IFK Norrkoping 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.44 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.