IFK Goteborg 1-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 July 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 2W 2D 2L across 6 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. IFK Goteborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
IFK Goteborg at Gamla Ullevi this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.17 PPG across 6 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W L D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Djurgardens IF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.33 vs 1.17 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 67% versus Djurgardens IF 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (IFK Goteborg 67% | Djurgardens IF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.07 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.960 / defence 1.129 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.705 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.127. Data: 6 IFK Goteborg games / 6 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 39% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 30%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Djurgardens IF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 33% | Djurgardens IF 0% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 39% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.07 / Djurgardens IF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.960 / def 1.129 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.705 / def 1.151 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Djurgardens IF xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 12 July 2020 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 39% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.96) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.70x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
39%
2.56
31%
3.22
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
1.97
0.90
Djurgardens IF xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.90 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.17 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Early Season
Djurgardens IF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.33 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 6-0 on 4 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
3
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 6-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (IFK Goteborg) and 0% (Djurgardens IF) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for IFK Goteborg and 33% for Djurgardens IF.
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 33%; IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 33% of games; Djurgardens IF in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 0% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 33% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IFK Goteborg 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.07 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.90 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 39% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 30%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 67%, Djurgardens IF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.33 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.