IF Elfsborg 3-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Malmo FF travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 6W 3D 1L at Borås Arena — 2.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Malmo FF have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Elfsborg 1.90 PPG, Malmo FF 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Malmo FF 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Malmo FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 48% versus Malmo FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.07 xG and Malmo FF 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.062 / defence 0.966 | Malmo FF attack 1.411 / defence 0.684. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.381. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.684 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.411 — the away xG of 1.88 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 IF Elfsborg games / 36 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 21% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 56%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Malmo FF 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 50% | Malmo FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 21% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.07 / Malmo FF 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.062 / def 0.966 | Malmo FF attack 1.411 / def 0.684 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Malmo FF xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 21% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF?
Record (5 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 1 | Malmo FF 2W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.06x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.68x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
21%
4.71
22%
4.47
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.95
1.88
Malmo FF xG
4.71
21%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
15%
6.57
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
3%
30.93
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.88 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 33W 14D 13L from 60 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Malmo FF, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 16L across 60 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.88 PPG, Malmo FF on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 18W 8D 4L from 30 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Malmo FF's away record stands at 14W 4D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.77 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 14D 13L in their last 60 games (1.88 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 33W 11D 16L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Malmo FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when IF Elfsborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Malmo FF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Malmo FF 1-2 IF Elfsborg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, Malmo FF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 53% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Malmo FF in 33%; Malmo FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 47% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 53% of Malmo FF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Malmo FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Malmo FF 3-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.07 xG and Malmo FF 1.88 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Malmo FF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Malmo FF attack 1.41 / defence 0.68, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 21% | Draw 22% | Malmo FF 56%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a IF Elfsborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.88 PPG, Malmo FF 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Malmo FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.