IF Elfsborg 0-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 9 May 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Djurgardens IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IF Elfsborg lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 55% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | Djurgardens IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.36 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.230 / defence 1.167 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.819 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.065. Data: 36 IF Elfsborg games / 37 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 45% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 28%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Djurgardens IF 3.57. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 40% | Djurgardens IF 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 9 May 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 45% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.36 / Djurgardens IF 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.230 / def 1.167 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.819 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Djurgardens IF xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 9 May 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 45% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.82x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
45%
2.24
27%
3.66
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.38
1.02
Djurgardens IF xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
7%
13.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.02 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 60 games, going 29W 19D 12L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.75 PPG from 60 outings (31W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.75 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 14W 11D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.57 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 17L in their last 60 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.77 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 57%, Djurgardens IF 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 40% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 40%; Djurgardens IF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 37% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 40% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IF Elfsborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 7, as IF Elfsborg and Djurgardens IF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.36 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.02 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.23 / defence 1.17 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.82 / defence 0.85, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 45% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 28%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, Djurgardens IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.77 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.