IF Brommapojkarna 2-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 4 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Mjallby AIF to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 0.97 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.847 / defence 1.234 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.973 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.100. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 3 IF Brommapojkarna games / 33 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 27% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 45%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 2.22. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Monday 24 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 27% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 0.97 / Mjallby AIF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.847 / def 1.234 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.973 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Mjallby AIF xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 April 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Brommapojkarna 2 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 27% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Mjallby AIF away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
27%
3.67
28%
3.57
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.29
1.32
Mjallby AIF xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
7%
13.74
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.4 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.32 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
Mjallby AIF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Mjallby AIF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IF Brommapojkarna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Mjallby AIF 2-0 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 0.97 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mjallby AIF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.97 / defence 0.79, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 27% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 45%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.