IF Brommapojkarna 0-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna welcome IF Elfsborg to Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 8 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, IF Elfsborg stand at 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. IF Elfsborg's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended IF Brommapojkarna 0–5 IF Elfsborg — a IF Elfsborg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 64% versus IF Elfsborg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 66% | IF Elfsborg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.03 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.913 / defence 1.250 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.142 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.216. IF Elfsborg bring a tight defence (rating 0.798, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling IF Brommapojkarna's projected output down. IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IF Elfsborg's projected output up. Data: built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 25 games and IF Elfsborg's last 55.
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 54%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 4.47 | Draw 4.22 | IF Elfsborg 1.85. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 home games and IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IF Brommapojkarna 60% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 26 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.03 / IF Elfsborg 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.913 / def 1.250 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.142 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.74
IF Elfsborg xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg FAQs
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 26) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 22% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 25 games and IF Elfsborg's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
22%
4.47
24%
4.22
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.76
1.74
IF Elfsborg xG
4.47
22%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
4%
25.39
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.74 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 27W 8D 20L from 55 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 30W 13D 12L across 55 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.62 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 16W 4D 7L from their last 27 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 13W 6D 8L across their last 27 away games, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.89 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna (Home) vs IF Elfsborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg Form FAQs
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 27W 8D 20L in their last 55 games (1.62 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 13D 12L in their last 55 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.93 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.67 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when IF Elfsborg won IF Elfsborg 5-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
5
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 67%, IF Elfsborg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 48% (IF Elfsborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%; IF Elfsborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 44% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 48% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 74% of IF Elfsborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 0-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.03 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.74 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.0 short of their projected output. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.14 / defence 0.80, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 22% | Draw 24% | IF Elfsborg 54%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 66%, IF Elfsborg 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.62 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.