Hammarby FF 1-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 52% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
IFK Goteborg travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hammarby FF stand at 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Hammarby FF have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, IFK Goteborg have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, IFK Goteborg have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 2.20 PPG, IFK Goteborg 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for IFK Goteborg and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Hammarby FF 1–1 IFK Goteborg — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Hammarby FF an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 46% versus IFK Goteborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | IFK Goteborg 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.76 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.251 / defence 1.070 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.881 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.225. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack rating of 1.251 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Hammarby FF's last 54 games and IFK Goteborg's last 54.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.94 | Draw 4.26 | IFK Goteborg 4.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 52% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Hammarby FF 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and IFK Goteborg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hammarby FF 60% (last 10 home games) | IFK Goteborg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 25 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Hammarby FF 1.76 / IFK Goteborg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.251 / def 1.070 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.881 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.16
IFK Goteborg xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg FAQs
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF 1 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 25) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 52% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hammarby FF's last 54 games and IFK Goteborg's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
52%
1.94
23%
4.26
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.92
1.16
IFK Goteborg xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
4%
23.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.16 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 27W 13D 14L from 54 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 22L across 54 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.74 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 17W 6D 3L from their last 26 home games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 8W 5D 13L across their last 26 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.28 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Hammarby FF (Home) vs IFK Goteborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg Form FAQs
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 13D 14L in their last 54 games (1.74 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.19 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 9 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won Hammarby FF 4-0 IFK Goteborg.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hammarby FF have won 7, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 May 2026: IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 58%, IFK Goteborg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Hammarby FF and 54% for IFK Goteborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; IFK Goteborg in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 42% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Hammarby FF's matches and 54% of IFK Goteborg's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 73% of IFK Goteborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg finished level at 1-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.76 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.16 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.25 / defence 1.07 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 23% | IFK Goteborg 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, IFK Goteborg 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.74 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.