Hammarby FF 4-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 8 as Hammarby FF welcome Djurgardens IF to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.60 (Djurgardens IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hammarby FF, 2 for Djurgardens IF and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 53% versus Djurgardens IF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Djurgardens IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.65 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.938 / defence 0.788 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.761 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.084. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.788 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Hammarby FF games / 37 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 61% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 14%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.64 | Draw 3.85 | Djurgardens IF 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 60% | Djurgardens IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 61% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 39% | xG Hammarby FF 1.65 / Djurgardens IF 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.938 / def 0.788 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.761 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Djurgardens IF xG
39%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF 4 - 3 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 61% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (0.94) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
61%
1.64
26%
3.91
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.30
0.65
Djurgardens IF xG
1.64
61%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
32%
3.15
3%
38.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 10.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.6 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.65 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 31W 16D 13L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 34W 12D 14L from 60 games, 1.90 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.82 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.27 PPG from 30 outings (20W 8D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 13W 9D 8L from 30 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.68 scored and 0.92 conceded. Hammarby FF's scoring rate against Djurgardens IF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 31W 16D 13L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 34W 12D 14L in their last 60 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.27 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
4
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, Djurgardens IF 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hammarby FF) and 30% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 43%; Djurgardens IF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 30% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 30% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Djurgardens IF 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Djurgardens IF 4-3 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.65 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.65 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF outscored their 0.65 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.94 / defence 0.79 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.76 / defence 1.07, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 61% | Draw 26% | Djurgardens IF 14%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, Djurgardens IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.82 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.