Hammarby FF 2-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tele2 Arena, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AIK Stockholm have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Hammarby FF, 1.70 for AIK Stockholm — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Hammarby FF, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 4–2 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 48% versus AIK Stockholm 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 55% | AIK Stockholm 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.87 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.175 / defence 0.960 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.866 / defence 1.550. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.412. AIK Stockholm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.550 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Hammarby FF games / 39 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 72% | Draw 15% | AIK Stockholm 13%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.39 | Draw 6.67 | AIK Stockholm 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (72%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.87 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 72% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 90% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 72% | Draw 15% | AIK Stockholm 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 65% | xG Hammarby FF 2.87 / AIK Stockholm 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.175 / def 0.960 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.866 / def 1.550 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.87
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.17
AIK Stockholm xG
65%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Hammarby FF 2 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 72% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 13% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (5 meetings): Hammarby FF 2W | Draws 2 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.18) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 2.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.87x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
72%
1.38
15%
6.70
13%
7.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.87
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
4.05
1.17
AIK Stockholm xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.70
15%
Draw
7.84
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
6%
17.67
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
1%
138.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.87 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.17 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 27W 19D 14L from 60 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 20L across 60 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.43 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 17W 10D 3L from 30 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 9W 7D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.32 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 23W 17D 20L in their last 60 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.03 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
3
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 63%, AIK Stockholm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Hammarby FF and 53% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Hammarby FF's games and 60% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Hammarby FF's matches and 53% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Hammarby FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out AIK Stockholm 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat AIK Stockholm 2-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.87 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.17 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.18 / defence 0.96 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.87 / defence 1.55, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 72% | Draw 15% | AIK Stockholm 13%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 55%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.67 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.