GIF Sundsvall 2-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Mjallby AIF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 0.89 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.747 / defence 1.516 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.829 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.084. GIF Sundsvall's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 GIF Sundsvall games / 38 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 25% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 48%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 2.08. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 25% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG GIF Sundsvall 0.89 / Mjallby AIF 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.747 / def 1.516 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.829 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Mjallby AIF xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 May 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF?
GIF Sundsvall 2 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 25% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Mjallby AIF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Mjallby AIF away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.75x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
25%
4.07
28%
3.61
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.25
1.36
Mjallby AIF xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
6%
15.91
20%
5.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.3 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.36 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Mjallby AIF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
0
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Mjallby AIF?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Mjallby AIF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2022, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Mjallby AIF?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
GIF Sundsvall cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Mjallby AIF 2-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 0.89 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.36 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mjallby AIF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.75 / defence 1.52 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.83 / defence 0.82, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 25% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 48%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.