Djurgardens IF 1-0 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Djurgardens IF welcome Varbergs BoIS FC to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 December 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Varbergs BoIS FC away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Djurgardens IF 1.40 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Djurgardens IF, 0 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2020, ended 2–1 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Djurgardens IF in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 55% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 62% | Varbergs BoIS FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.60 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.160 / defence 1.061 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.889 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.371. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.238 — this is suppressing Djurgardens IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Djurgardens IF games / 29 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Djurgardens IF at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Dec 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.60 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.160 / def 1.061 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.889 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.371 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 December 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 44% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (1 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.84
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.90
1.29
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.29 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 29 games, going 13W 6D 10L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.55 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 6W 4D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.55 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 13W 6D 10L in their last 29 games (1.55 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 10W 7D 12L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.57 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
1
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 64%, Varbergs BoIS FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Djurgardens IF and 50% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 43% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.60 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Varbergs BoIS FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.16 / defence 1.06 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 44% | Draw 26% | Varbergs BoIS FC 30%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 62%, Varbergs BoIS FC 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.55 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.