Djurgardens IF 2-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 29 August 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 8W 1D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: L D D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Djurgardens IF. A 1.30 PPG lead over IF Elfsborg (2.30 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Djurgardens IF 0W, IF Elfsborg 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 41% versus IF Elfsborg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 51% | IF Elfsborg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.21 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.558 / defence 0.863 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.979 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.144. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.558 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Djurgardens IF games / 49 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 65% | Draw 20% | IF Elfsborg 15%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | IF Elfsborg 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 50% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 Aug 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 65% | Draw 20% | IF Elfsborg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 55% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.21 / IF Elfsborg 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.558 / def 0.863 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.979 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
IF Elfsborg xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 29 August 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Djurgardens IF 2 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 65% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 0W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.56) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.98x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.12
15%
6.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.17
0.97
IF Elfsborg xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
6.62
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
11%
9.10
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
2%
60.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.97 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 28W 11D 10L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 22W 13D 14L from 49 games, 1.61 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.61 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.38 PPG from 24 outings (18W 3D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.94 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 9W 6D 9L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.71 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 28W 11D 10L in their last 49 games (1.94 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 13D 14L in their last 49 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.38 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 50%, IF Elfsborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Djurgardens IF and 46% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 46% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out IF Elfsborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IF Elfsborg 2-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.21 xG and IF Elfsborg 0.97 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.56 / defence 0.86 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 65% | Draw 20% | IF Elfsborg 15%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 51%, IF Elfsborg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.94 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.