Djurgardens IF 4-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Djurgardens IF at 1.80 PPG versus Hammarby FF's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus Hammarby FF 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 53% | Hammarby FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.47 xG and Hammarby FF 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.143 / defence 0.958 | Hammarby FF attack 1.080 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.082. Data: 47 Djurgardens IF games / 47 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 43% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 27%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Hammarby FF 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 40% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 43% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.47 / Hammarby FF 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.143 / def 0.958 | Hammarby FF attack 1.080 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Hammarby FF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Djurgardens IF 4 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 43% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.14) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.38
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.59
1.12
Hammarby FF xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
6%
16.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.12 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 24W 10D 13L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 17W 17D 13L from 47 games, 1.45 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.74 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (13W 6D 4L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 8W 5D 10L from 23 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.62 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 68%.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 24W 10D 13L in their last 47 games (1.74 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 17W 17D 13L in their last 47 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.96 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
4
Draws
4
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 52%, Hammarby FF 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Djurgardens IF and 78% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Djurgardens IF's games and 70% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 78% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Hammarby FF 4-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.47 xG and Hammarby FF 1.12 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.14 / defence 0.96 against Hammarby FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 43% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 27%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 53%, Hammarby FF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.74 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.