Djurgardens IF 1-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host AIK Stockholm at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 8W 1D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 1.60 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Djurgardens IF have won 0, AIK Stockholm 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 38% versus AIK Stockholm 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 51% | AIK Stockholm 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.21 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.371 / defence 0.760 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.155 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.166. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 2.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Djurgardens IF games / 55 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 63% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 15%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | AIK Stockholm 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (63%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 30% | AIK Stockholm 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 63% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.21 / AIK Stockholm 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.371 / def 0.760 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.155 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AIK Stockholm xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 63% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 0W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.21. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.49
15%
6.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.24
1.02
AIK Stockholm xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
6.73
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
11%
9.14
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
2%
61.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.02 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 31W 12D 12L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 30W 13D 12L from 55 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.91 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.33 PPG from 27 outings (20W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.91 PPG overall — Djurgardens IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.55 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 12L in their last 55 games (1.91 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 30W 13D 12L in their last 55 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.33 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 48%, AIK Stockholm 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Djurgardens IF) and 44% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 44% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Djurgardens IF 1-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.21 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.02 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.37 / defence 0.76 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.16 / defence 1.09, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 63% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 15%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 51%, AIK Stockholm 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.91 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.