Degerfors IF 3-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Degerfors IF host Orebro SK at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 18 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Orebro SK away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.54 xG and Orebro SK 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.841 / defence 0.916 | Orebro SK attack 0.943 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.160. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Degerfors IF games / 36 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 48% | Draw 29% | Orebro SK 23%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Orebro SK 4.35. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Degerfors IF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 48% | Draw 29% | Orebro SK 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Degerfors IF 1.54 / Orebro SK 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.841 / def 0.916 | Orebro SK attack 0.943 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Orebro SK xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 18 May 2021 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Degerfors IF 3 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK part of?
Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 48% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Degerfors IF and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Orebro SK in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Orebro SK away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.84) and Orebro SK's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
48%
2.08
29%
3.42
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.54
1.00
Orebro SK xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
5%
20.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.00 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and Orebro SK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orebro SK go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 May 2021, when Degerfors IF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, Orebro SK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2024, when Degerfors IF 1-2 Orebro SK.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Orebro SK 3-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.54 xG and Orebro SK 1.00 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Orebro SK attack 0.94 / defence 1.35, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 48% | Draw 29% | Orebro SK 23%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.